Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.048241 0.054746 0.062005 0.070744 0.081028 0.092805 0.107398
2026-01-04 0.040351 0.048911 0.059273 0.072879 0.090481 0.112768 0.143590
2026-01-11 0.033959 0.043542 0.055986 0.073640 0.098549 0.133248 0.186720
2026-01-18 0.028896 0.038957 0.052881 0.074104 0.106645 0.156448 0.242217
2026-01-25 0.024297 0.034221 0.048748 0.072377 0.111510 0.177047 0.303099
2026-02-01 0.020294 0.029687 0.044130 0.069025 0.113277 0.193960 0.366888
2026-02-08 0.017836 0.027094 0.042049 0.069408 0.121787 0.226486 0.479935
2026-02-15 0.015823 0.024887 0.040217 0.069898 0.130982 0.264883 0.633106
2026-02-22 0.014281 0.023218 0.039019 0.071362 0.142944 0.315607 0.860820
2026-03-01 0.012928 0.021668 0.037768 0.072497 0.154950 0.373720 1.171864
2026-03-08 0.011507 0.019783 0.035566 0.071180 0.161105 0.421148 1.508901
2026-03-15 0.009949 0.017431 0.032072 0.066254 0.156746 0.436811 1.747713
2026-03-22 0.009086 0.016317 0.030959 0.066733 0.167753 0.511541 2.408740
2026-03-29 0.008449 0.015559 0.030468 0.068667 0.184206 0.620695 3.539717
2026-04-05 0.007792 0.014670 0.029547 0.069328 0.197499 0.732239 5.076361
2026-04-12 0.007197 0.013830 0.028599 0.069721 0.210548 0.859231 7.341979
2026-04-19 0.006555 0.012807 0.027060 0.068086 0.215968 0.957987 9.933538
2026-04-26 0.005911 0.011704 0.025159 0.064950 0.214545 1.021333 12.596393
2026-05-03 0.005520 0.011117 0.024445 0.065285 0.227739 1.195455 19.046238
2026-05-10 0.005174 0.010593 0.023806 0.065723 0.242056 1.405081 29.783315
2026-05-17 0.004900 0.010205 0.023459 0.067067 0.261830 1.699763 51.021484
2026-05-24 0.004640 0.009816 0.023049 0.068108 0.281283 2.042548 90.243897
2026-05-31 0.004322 0.009251 0.022072 0.066878 0.288461 2.290401 142.288364